The Harris campaign did a pretty good job at circulating their poll numbers from the summer.  The numbers showed a 15+ point lead.  Since that poll the Democratic Party pumped in millions of dollars to knock off Senator Harris and it appears that they may have won.  This district was designed to lump right leaning voters into one district.  Wayne Gilchrest pretended to be a Republican and it worked for him until this year.  Who knew that he could have been what he really was, a Democrat, and kept his seat?  The district is split 50/50 between Baltimore/Harford Counties against the rest of the district.  Baltimore and Harford County voted 60/40 for Harris.  If Andy split the shore vote he would have won.  The problem was, he got wiped 60/40 on most of the shore.  In fact, Andy only carried 3 counties.  The conservative Baltimore/Harford vote was counter balanced perfectly by the shore vote.  It’s a great strategy by shore candidates to pit the North against the South.  If the shore candidates can solidify their backyard we will continue to see shore candidates carry the day.

So where do we start in the blame game.  Everyone has their own ideas I am sure.

#1:  The Issues
I have seen almost all of the mailers sent out by both campaigns and I must say that the whole “failed” prosecutor stunt was a flop.  It was just too nit picky to sway voters.  Kratovil’s website quickly explained away the mailers.  Kratovil is pretty moderate on the issues that matter to conservatives (probably other than abortion).  Kratovil even got an ‘A’ from the NRA.  I don’t believe for a minute that he will vote the right way in Washington.  Harris tried to paint him as a liberal and the accusation didn’t seem to stick.  It was the old Karl Rove trick, keep repeating ‘weapons of mass destruction’ and people will eventually believe it.  The liberal, failed/soft on crime prosecutor shtick just didn’t float on the shore.  They knew him best and they liked him.  The race seemed to target the Northern part of the district and that kind of politicking works up here.  We don’t care for liberals up here and we beat them down 60/40 every time.  It may have been a better strategy to say, “He says he’s a conservative but we KNOW Andy is a Conservative.”  Kratovil’s ads tying Andy to ‘dirty’ money had to have been effective.  They were pretty good ads.  Andy should have pointed out Kratovil’s donor base and there had to have been some pretty far left organizations giving money to him.  “Liberals are always wrong”…that strategy was wrong.

#2: The Central Committees
In my opinion, we have some of the most worthless Republican Central Committees around.  I know several volunteers in the Harris and Matthews campaigns and they all say that they got little to no support from most of the members of the Central Committees throughout the districts.  I understand that running for office is kind of cool and getting your name selected by a few thousand people because your last name starts with a ‘C’ makes you feel important but you are not important unless you actually do what you are supposed to.  MOST OF YOU FAILED!!  Some of the campaigns never saw your face and wouldn’t know who you were if you punched them in the face.  The names will start to come out as well.  If you are on the Republican Central Committee and you are not in the hospital and you did not support the local candidates for Congress, enjoy your last two years because rumors of Central Committee revolution abound (starting with the top).

#3: Local Elected Officials
To be honest, I heard more from ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich than most of our local elected officials.  It was a little late in the game but Bob Ehrlich is still very popular here in Harford County.  I am sure his endorsement (which costs him nothing) was good for Harris.  What I would have liked to see was a mailer or TV ad with Jacobs, Glassman, McComas, Stifler, and other eastern shore R’s all standing with Andy.  Maybe it was there and I just missed it, but I doubt it.  It seems that some internal bickering may have gotten the better of the Harris campaign.

I have heard other rumors about abrasive Harris campaign staff members from several different people but I will save that one for another time.

If Andy Harris loses we need to figure out why and blaming McCain/Bush, which is certainly valid, is not good enough.  There were other problems that need to be addressed.